Marine Report

Marine Report (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Saba & Sint Eustatius
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11

WARNING MESSAGE NO. 7

Date: Tuesday September 05, 2017  Time: 23:57 local time

Watches/warnings: The strike phase of the Hurricane warning is in effect for Saba and St Eustatius. At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 kt (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday; the center will move west-northwestwards just north (appr. 50 km) of Saba and St Eustatius. A direct hit, where Irma will move directly over the Islands, can almost be ruled out. During Wednesday the hurricane will move further west-northwestwards towards the northern Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 kt (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

Effect on local conditions

Winds: During the night and early morning the strong to near gale (6-7 Bft) northerly wind will increase to tropical storm force 9-10 Bft (strong gale-storm) and the wind direction will become northwesterly. During the morning the wind is expected to turn southwest and increase to 10-12 Bft (estimated maximum sustained winds of 95-125 km/h). The probability for Hurricane-force winds (exceeding 12 Bft, 64 kt (>120 km/h)) is around 60%. In the afternoon the wind will turn to south and will gradually decrease to near gale to gale 7-8 Bft. In the evening the wind will further decrease to strong, 6 Bft and will then shift to a south to southeasterly direction. Gusts will be up to 20 kt ( around 40 km/h) above the mean wind.

Seas: Wave height is around 9-12 ft and will during the night build up to 15-20 ft and may reach values of 25-30 ft in the morning. Waves will come from easterly directions at first, but from around noon this shifts counter clockwise to a predominantly southwesterly direction. From the afternoon wave height will gradually start to diminish and will be around 7 ft on Thursday morning. Waves will still mostly come from a southerly direction on that day. From Wednesday afternoon till Friday morning there is a risk of westerly swells of 3-5 ft. The combination of dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will rise water levels by as much as 7-11 ft above normal tide levels.

Rainfall: Until Thursday squally weather and thundery rain. Amounts of 6 to 11 inches are likely.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Center's latest and forecast positions:

Wed Sep 06 08:00 lt 18.1N 63.1W 56 km (35 miles) northeast of Saba  
Wed Sep 06 20:00 lt 19.1N 65.9W 324 km (201 miles) northwest of Saba  
Thu Sep 07 08:00 lt 20.1N 68.5W 617 km (383 miles) northwest of Saba  
Thu Sep 07 20:00 lt 21.0N 71.2W 914 km (568 miles) northwest of Saba  
Fri Sep 08 20:00 lt 22.0N 76.2W 1438 km (893 miles) northwest of Saba  
   

Definitions:

TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKE WARNING: A warning for tropical cyclone conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range >= 118 km/h (>=74 mph) (>= 64 knots) are expected in specified areas in 6-9 hours or less.

Next bulletin: Wednesday September 06, 2017, 05:57 local time

 

 MonTueWedThuFriSat
  Sep 4, 2017 Sep 5, 2017 Sep 6, 2017 Sep 7, 2017 Sep 8, 2017 Sep 9, 2017
 
Max. Temperature 32 30 29 29 31 31
Min. Temperature 26 26 26 26 26 26
Rainfall (mm) 1/3 2/20 25/100 2/10 2/5 2/5
Rainfall (%) 20 60 90 80 70 70
Sunshine (%) 80 50 10 20 30 30
Wind E 4 NE 5 W 9 SE 6 E 4 E 4

Weather Forecast for Curaçao and surroundings valid until Tuesday evening 18:00 l.t., September 5, 2017.

Issued:
Monday September 4, 2017 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC).

                                      CODE YELLOW: PRECAUTION FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AND ROUGH SEAS.                                                  

Weather:
Generally partly cloudy and mainly dry. Forecast high will be 35ºC, and the low will be 28ºC. Sunrise will occur at 06:25 and sunset at 18:44.

Winds:
Easterly and gentle to moderate; force 3 to 4 (12 to 30 km/hr, 7 to 16 knots). Mainly during the day, a few occasional gusts to fresh are possible; force 5 (31 to 39 km/hr, 17 to 21 knots). Becoming less on Tuesday.

Synopsis:
A weak high pressure ridge ahead of Hurricane Irma will influence our weather tonight and tomorrow as well. It will cause generally dry conditions across the region. Otherwise, decreasing winds in combination with strong sunshine and humid air will result in an additional warm feeling through much of this week. People are requested to take this into account (Code Yellow) and limit physical exercise during especially daytime.

Sea conditions:
Slight to moderate with wave heights around 1 meter (3 feet). Northeast swells are foreseen to move in over the northern waters by tomorrow Tuesday. Interests should be aware of this event and mainly the fishermen should be cautious (Code Yellow) along the northern coastal area.

Significant tropical weather systems:
Hurricane Irma continues over the Atlantic open waters located about a 935 kilometers east of St. Maarten. The cyclone is foreseen to move very close or over the islands in the northeast Caribbean on Wednesday. Another tropical system has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone was located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. None of these cyclones pose a threat to Curaçao. But as usual, Meteorological Department Curaçao will continue to monitor the progress of these systems.

Special features:
None.

Outlook until Wednesday evening:
Generally partly cloudy and mainly dry. Light winds will cause an unpleasant warm feeling.

Forecaster:
Capello.

The next weather forecast will be issued on Tuesday at 05:00 l.t. (09:00 UTC).

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